P-35 - Predicting the seasonal abundance of the cattail mosquito (Coquillettidia perturbans) in Minnesota, USA

Abstract: Predicting mosquito abundance has obvious advantages for mosquito abatement districts including determining amounts of control materials to be purchased, managing staff time required for treatments, setting expectations for the public, and mitigating mosquito-borne disease. Based on observations that rainfall appeared to influence the following year’s abundance of Coquillettidia perturbans mosquitoes, a simple linear regression model was constructed which included the rainfall received in the previous mosquito season and the average abundance of adult Cq. perturbans mosquitoes collected in CO₂-baited light traps in the previous season. This model has proved useful for the Metropolitan Mosquito Control District operations which target this cattail habitat-limited, univoltine mosquito species. Future refinements to the model such as including a measure of acres treated may improve the accuracy of the prediction.