143 - Mapping dengue virus transmission risk based on real-time surveillance data with VectorSurv

Abstract: Dengue cases have been detected more frequently in the continental U.S. over the last decade. In 2024, the international surge in dengue cases further increased the flow of infected travelers into the U.S., and combined with continued spread of Aedes aegypti, has made the continental U.S. more vulnerable than ever to local outbreaks of dengue. Many models have been published to explain or predict patterns in dengue virus risk, but few have been operationalized to provide dynamic estimates of dengue risk derived from near-real-time data on mosquito surveillance and environmental conditions. In this presentation, we will provide an overview of VectorSurv’s latest maps of relative risk for dengue transmission. The relative risk calculations combine trap-derived estimates of mosquito density and temperature-based estimates of biting rate, survival, and the extrinsic incubation period of dengue virus to generate real-time, dynamic estimates of dengue virus transmission risk. Estimates can be made at the census county subdivision level for any continental U.S. jurisdiction that has recorded trapping data in VectorSurv. This allows the system’s users to more effectively monitor and understand spatial and temporal variations in transmission potential, providing valuable insights for targeting vector control and public health interventions.